The “No Way in Hell, Not Gonna’ Happen” 2021 SB Contender Plan:
The news last week all but confirmed that Ben Roethlisberger will return as our QB for next season. Hold my beer while I don’t celebrate this news, and I say that being a HUGE fan of #7, with every single one of his rookie cards, two signed jerseys, and numerous other memorabilia of his. His Fathead ® has displayed proudly on my son’s bedroom wall for over a decade while the likes of Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell and even the great Troy Polamalu have come and gone. I mean we have only had two good QB’s and I was a small child when Terry Bradshaw and the Steel Curtain won all those Lombardies’ back in the 70’s. It was two decades of mediocrity after that, even if we did appear in one more SB. That all changed with the 11th overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft when we selected our now 39-year old sure HOF quarterback.
I listened to Rooney tell us all how he would love to have the same team return next season. Commit to the run game and we can compete for a SB next season with Ben at the helm. What? Our team isn’t even remotely going to look the same, thanks largely to that enormous cap number of Ben’s and the pandemic cutting the NFL Salary cap to some 180-185 million. The same team? What??
Maurkice Pouncey, his perennial All-Pro center for the last decade has retired.
His other buddy, TE Vance McDonald also hung up his cleats.
Alejandro Villanueva, who has been the starter at LT for the last 90 games protecting Ben’s blindside isn’t coming back.
James Conner, his top RB isn’t returning.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, your #1 receiver who he has targeted 321 times in the last 34 games they have played together (9.44 times per game) is a free-agent who is going to get 60-70 million dollar offers
Matt Fieler, who has started 40 games the last 3 seasons might not be back.
And that is just on the right side of the ball. On defense, key players are also free-agents.
Bud Dupree, the stalwart outside linebacker on the opposite side of TJ Watt is also in the open market. How important is he? Well, he went down with a torn ACL late in game 11 against the Ravens…and here is how we fared in 2020:
With Dupree: 11-0 record and our defense was allowing 17.1 points per game
Without Dupree: 1-5 record and our defense allowed 28.7 points per game
NT Tyson Alualu and CB’s Cameron Sutton and Mike Hilton are also free-agents looking to cash-in. Maybe, if the Steelers are lucky they can bring two of them back.
So how exactly is this team even remotely going to resemble last seasons??
Isn’t that why you bring Ben back at all? To make that last SB run with our HOF QB??
Sure, maybe your offensive line is better; simply because it couldn’t possibly be any worse than it was in 2020; just on odds alone. DeCastro, the Steelers starting guard for the last 8 seasons and perennial All-Pro could bounce back- but it is very possible that the other 4 starters on the line could all be relatively new and inexperienced. Chukwuma Okorafor has a career total of 19 starts and Zach Banner only two and those are your projected starting tackles. Kevin Dotson and J.C. Hassenauer have a combined 8 starts. The best bet if any of those four aren’t starting (combined 29 starts among them) it is going to be a high draft pick(s) in its stead.
So I just don’t understand the logic here. I look for a tell-all sign that it is time to move on from Ben. You know, a certain play or moment in the game that defines the end of an amazing career for the HOF quarterback who has thrown for over 60,000 yards (7th all-time with 60,348), has almost 400 career touchdowns (8th all-time with 396) and most importantly has over 150 wins (5th all-time with 156). Of quarterbacks who have started over 150 games, only Tom Brady (.769), Joe Montana (.713) and Peyton Manning (.702) have better win percentages than Roethlisberger (.677) in their illustrious careers.
And then it takes all of five seconds to remember that certain play or moment…..
So we go another run with him and hope that a new running back (odds are great they get one early in the draft) and a revamped offensive line changes things enough to make a difference. That Ben somehow adapts to this new offensive scheme in a single year. Play action? Seriously?? Hope that Ebron magically learns how to block? Hope that DeCastro can in fact bounce back and Banner’s knee doesn’t stagnate his progress. That we can easily replace Smith-Schuster, whose 76% catch percentage thwarted that of returning guys Johnson (62%), Claypool (57%) and Washington (54%). That a healthy Bush and second year progression of Highsmith will somehow offset the loss of DuPree and possibly Williams at LB with almost no depth to speak of. That the loss of one if not both of Hilton and Sutton will not affect our defensive backfield performance or worse the 32-year old Haden will be able to stay healthy and return to his previous season form. That is a lot to ask just to make one last push.
No, the prudent thing to have done here is see what you have in the other two QB’s you currently have on the roster (Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins) and bring back as much of your youngsters as you can, specifically on defense. Turn the page and help that new QB as much as possible by bringing that (hopefully healthy this time) defense back and then improving the offense as you were going to do anyway.
I am afraid bringing back Ben just sets us back…
I finally crunched the numbers and did find one way, where maybe; just maybe, they could be a SB contender again with Roethlisberger at the helm. Of course the odds of them going this route are about slim to none….but I write it anyway….
In this exercise I am sticking to my late December 2020 prediction of us winding up with a $185 million salary cap. The floor has already been raised from 175 to 180 since then and the latest rumors has the cap coming in at 181-183. I think they find a little more change in the sofas and that winds up at 185.
Here is where we stand right now:
• 2021 NFL Predicted Salary Cap: $185,000,000
• Steelers 2020 Carryover: $4,950,555
• 2021 Steelers Cap: $189,950,555
• Current Liabilities: $204,513,469
• Over/Under: $14,562,914 (OVER)
A: Retirements, Restructures, Extensions and Cuts
1) TE Vance McDonald- Steelers weren’t likely to pick up his 2021 team option anyway
Retired, saving 5.2 million towards the cap (already accounted for in totals above)
2) C Maurkice Pouncey- He still has 6 months or so to change his mind, but right now he seems content
Retired, saving 8 million towards the cap
3) DE Cameron Heyward- This was an automatic
Restructure, saving 7.07 million towards the cap; 7.48 million cap hit for 2021 (already accounted for)
4) DE Stephon Tuitt- Almost certain this move will be the next domino to fall
Restructure, saving 3.96 million towards the cap; 10.98 million cap hit for 2021
5) PK Chris Boswell- They will look to squeeze out all the pennies they can before cuts and extensions
Restructure, saving 1.05 million towards the cap; 3.72 million cap hit for 2021
6) FB Derek Watt- See Boswell
Restructure, saving .88 million towards the cap; 2.95 million cap hit for 2021
7) QB Ben Roethlisberger- All signs now point to him returning and it looks as though an extension is the way he will go. All 19 million of his base and roster bonus except for the minimum will turn into a signing bonus spread out over 4 years; that is what it looks like will happen
Extend for 4 years (14.34 million spread out); saves 14.34 million towards the cap; 26.91 cap hit for 2021
8) CB Steven Nelson- Still just 28 years old and perhaps with his best ball still in front of him, Steelers will definitely look to extend him; also turn all but minimum of his 2021 base into signing bonus
Extend for 3 years and $28 million; saves 5.45 million towards cap; 8.98 cap hit for 2021
9) G David DeCastro- I would rather not extend him, because 2020 was by far his worse season. That being said I think he rebounds, and a 2-year extension with no raise or cut and 5 extra guaranteed gives me a nice chunk of cap space- put his base minus minimum into a signing bonus like all the rest
Extend for 2 years $20 million; saves 5.12 million towards cap; 9.18 cap hit for 2021
10) OLB TJ Watt- The safe play here is to go ahead and let him play out the final year of his rookie deal, but based on other decisions one could make, I go ahead and extend him now for some modest cap savings. Think 5 years and $140 million; huge signing bonus and monster amount guaranteed. A 30 million signing bonus and dropping his 2021 base to just over a million (1.089). 20/22/22/24/26 for five years will be his base
Extend for 5 years $135 million; saves 3 million towards cap; 7.098 cap hit for 2021
11) CB Joe Haden- This is when the decisions become hard. I just see no way that the Steelers cut their best CB for one last championship run with Big Ben, despite him turning 32 in April; but I also have seen no indication that he would be doing a similar type contract like their QB is expected to make. His cap hit is too large (15.575) to simply let him play at that number so an extension is most likely in the cards. If the Steelers are serious about one last run it is either get him to agree to the same type of deal (spreading his entire base minus the minimum over four years) or cut him. I think he will ultimately agree and look for a job elsewhere next season or retire
Extend for 4 years (4.73 million spread out); saves 4.73 million towards cap; 10.84 cap hit for 2021
12) TE Eric Ebron- Doubly hard. It is not ideal for Ben to come back for a final run and having to replace both of his tight ends, but that is what is needed here. If the Steelers are to focus on the running game, they need their tight end to be able to block. It would also be nice if they didn’t drop every 4th pass thrown their way. Ebron’s 8.5 million cap hit is a problem and extending him isn’t the smart move but rather cutting him and getting much needed cap space is
Cut, saving $6 million towards the cap
13) ILB Vince Williams- His base is only 4 million, but we need that cap space and he is the odd man out. Perhaps at a pay cut we can get him back later in the process
Cut, saving $4 million towards the cap
UPDATE:
• After these (11) moves we are at:
• Steelers 2021 Cap: $189,950,555
• Current Allocations: $150,034,302
• Cap Space: $39,916,253
B: Our Own Free-agents (RFA and UFA’s)
14-16) ILB Robert Spillane, LB/S Marcus Allen and C J.C. Hassenauer (ERFA)- Steelers bring back all 3 of their ERFA’s as both Spillane and Allen figure to be in the mix to help replace Williams and Hassenauer is the de facto starting center until team signs or drafts one
Tenders offered and signed for a combined $2.48 million
17-18) OLB Olasunkami Adeniyi and WR Ray-Ray McCloud (RFA)- I can’t justify original round tenders on either of them. Adeniyi couldn’t stay on the field and McCloud disappeared and struggled in the second half of the season. I do consider re-signing them after the dust clears
19-21) DE Cassius Marsh and G Danny Isidora (UFA)- I have little interest in bringing either of them back
22-25) QB Joshua Dobbs, T Jerald Hawkins, S Jordan Dangerfield and LB Jayrone Elliott (UFA)- I bring all four of them back for close to the minimum, with both Dobbs and Dangerfield getting slightly more (1.15 and 1 million respectively)
Re-signed all four for a single year and a combined $4.095 million
26-29) OT Alejandro Villanueva, RB James Conner, ILB Avery Williamson and P Jordan Berry (UFA)- Villanueva is either going to retire or get one more big bag of cash to reward him on past performance, but if it is the later it won’t be us. Someone is going to see Conner as an all-purpose back who got 1500 yards from scrimmage as recent as 2018, we will see someone who simply couldn’t stay healthy. There will be interest there with Williamson, but he will command more than we can offer and I hope the Steelers finally move on from the wild inconsistency that is Jordan Berry- pass on all four
30-32) T/G Matt Felier, CB Mike Hilton and DL Chris Wormley (UFA)- Steelers should and likely will have interest in all three but the price is going to have to be right for them. Hilton will likely be too rich for our blood and we end up passing on both Feiler and Wormley
33) T Zach Banner (UFA)- This needs to be a top priority and by all accounts it will be. A nice signing bonus (500,000) and roster bonus (500,000) with the RT spot his to lose
Re-signed 1 year $1.99 million
34) S Sean Davis (UFA)- Perhaps the crowded safety market isn’t quite there for Davis and I get him back on a cheap deal to back up my safety spots
Re-signed, 2-years $3.75 million; 1.75 million cap hit for 2021
35) CB Cameron Sutton- I sacrificed Hilton and bring back the younger and more versatile Sutton. The former is getting his 7 million average in almost all projections because of his stellar play in the nickel while Cameron is being kept off most FA lists, despite being able to do it all including the slot, safety as well as perhaps challenging for the starting cover corner job once Haden leaves. If they jump early they should get him for a good deal
Re-signed, 4 years $23 million; 4.25 million cap hit for 2021 (3/4/5/6 per season; $5 million signing bonus)
36) NT Tyson Alualu (UFA)- Coming off perhaps his best season even at the age of 34, I give him an extra year and a million more guaranteed to get him inked to stabilize the defensive front; leaving me time to groom one
Re-signed, 2 years $5.75 million; 2.25 million cap hit for 2021; 1.5 million signing bonus; 4 million guaranteed
37) OLB Bud Dupree- No one to date with online FA projections is paying him the contract that he likely thinks he should get on the open market. His ACL injury combined with this lower cap market works to our advantage. Offer more years (5) at a lower AAV (16) and more guaranteed; you can get him locked up probably.
Re-signed, 5 years $80 million; 7 million cap hit for 2021 (3/14/14/14/15 per season; $20 million signing bonus)
38) WR Juju Smith-Schuster- I get him locked up for the exact same amount which is in line with all three of FPP, Spotrac and OTC. It comes with a slightly higher signing bonus than Dupree, but also more guaranteed
Re-signed, 5 years $80 million; 9 million cap hit for 2021 (3/9/11.5/12.5/14 per season; $30 million signing bonus)
UPDATE:
• After these 38 moves/decisions here is where I stand with my cap:
• Steelers 2021 Cap (with carryover): $189,950,555
• Current Allocations: $173,951,302
• Over/Under: $15,999,253 (UNDER)
C- The Free-agent Market:
39) TE Gerald Everett (LAR)- I split the difference on the 3 highest guess-timations on what his new contract will look like and lock him up for 3 years. Everett is a movable TE who can block as well as catch and is both younger and cheaper than Ebron would be.
Signed, 3 years $16.5 million; 4 million cap hit for 2021 (3/4.5/6 per season; $3 million signing bonus)
40) T Kelvin Beachum (ATL)- He is no longer a starting LT, but he more than held his own on the right side last season for the Falcons and brings much needed insurance. He got just the minimum last season, and I more than triple that and hand out a 2-year deal
Signed, 2 year $6 million contract; 2.50 million cap hit for 2021
41) C/G B.J. Finney (CIN)- He should be an automatic cut by the Bengals as he didn’t even get an offensive snap and there is no dead money there on the 3.5 base and roster bonus. Steelers bring him back close to that base to provide depth at center and guard while looking to add to both positions in the draft
Signed, 1 year $2.88 million contract
42) WR Ray-Ray McCloud (PIT)- After the dust clears, they bring him back for the minimum plus a 500,000 roster bonus
Re-signed, 1 year $1.42 million
FINAL:
• Those are my 4 free-agent signings
• After these 42 moves here is where I stand with my cap:
• Steelers 2021 Cap (with carryover): $189,950,555
• Current Allocations: $180,326,802
• Over/Under: $9,623,753 (UNDER)
D- The Draft:
I actually like Countryman’s trade down with Miami for several reasons, including that we have traded with them before recently, their abundance of picks in those rounds (4) and how it benefits us. I don’t think however think they are giving us both 36 and 50 just to move up to 24. The trade values are follows with both the Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill models:
Jimmy Johnson Rich Hill
PITT Pick 24 (1)- 740 points 237 points
MIA Pick 36 (2)- 540 points 166 points
MIA Pick 50 (2)- 400 points 115 points
MIA Pick 81 (3)- 185 points 55 points
MIA Pick 113 (4)- 68 points 27 points
Teams do tend to overpay a little when it comes to trading for a first round selection, but that is a little too much so. The difference in points is only 200/71 using the two charts, yet we would be receiving 400/115 which is a little much…
A more logical scenario using that 200/71 benchmark difference would be the Steelers getting both Miami’s third and fourth round selections; combined totaling a 253/82. That value will tighten due to compensatory picks in the third round. Even then the Steelers would probably need to send their first of two 6th round picks (13/6) just to get the Dolphins (who have only 7 picks total) closer to the trade value
I also have the Steelers trading with the Vikings just to get back into the 5th round (Minnesota has 3 in that round and 12 total). They surrender a 2022 5th round pick for the Vikings final of three picks in the 5th round. Minnesota subsequently did not have a 5th round pick in 2022 so it makes even more sense they would be open to the deal.
So the two trades are as follows:
Steelers trade (1-24) and (6-225) to the Dolphins for (2-36, 3-81 and 4-123) and they trade a future 2022 5th rounder to the Vikings for (5-172)
Picks:
2nd Round (36 from Miami): RB Javonte Williams, North Carolina– Who knows if Najee Harris (Alabama) or Travis Etienne (Clemson) are still there at 24- but the likelihood that one of the three will be there at 36 is good and my bet is it is Williams, who I actually have graded neck and neck with Harris. The Tar Heel tailback also has less wear and tear while being almost a full 2 years younger
2nd Round (55): OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame– The safe guess here is center, as all three big school maulers in Creed Humphrey (Oklahoma), Landon Dickerson (Alabama) or Josh Myers (Ohio State) could still be on the board here, but I am predicting tackle. Liam isn’t sexy and not quite on the same par as some guaranteed first round tackles but he has long and solid NFL career written all over him
3rd Round (81 from Miami): C/G Quinn Menerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater- I think the cat may be out of the bag on this small school standout after his Senior Bowl showing, but I still can’t quite put a second round grade on him; though I would certainly consider him at 55. Truth is the Steelers could go a myriad of ways with their first three picks but I do think it will more likely than not include a RB, C and T
3rd Round (87): TE Hunter Long, Boston College– Huge imposing tight end who can block and catch and will immediately help with the new offense. Caught 57 passes and had 5 TD’s in 11 games in 2020. Notre Dame’s Tommy Tremble could also be an option here, as I like TE being the pick with the extra third they got for trading down
4th Round (123 from Miami): WR Anthony Schwartz, Auburn – He likely would have been a first round target had he gone back to school as it was an inconsistent 2020 for the Auburn offense as a whole. Still we are talking about a 4.45 guy who can add another weapon for Ben’s last hurrah and could be another draft gem the Steelers always find in the draft
4th Round (128): CB Benjamin St-Juste, Minnesota– Impressive size and length as the Steelers look for another corner for life after Haden. Two Syracuse kids they probably like a lot as well but they might be gone, this is a nice spot to get a really good corner before they are all off the board. St.-Juste will need some time to adjust to NFL play but his long term potential is off the charts
4th Round (141): LB Tony Fields, West Virginia– Steelers get their first linebacker with Fields, who has been a tackling machine in four years at big schools in Arizona and with the Mountaineers. He got a Senior Bowl invitation because of his steady play, averaging over 93 tackles since his breakout freshman season when he topped out at 104. He has the speed and athleticism to help replace the departing Williams and battle Spillane for PT immediately
5th Round (172): DT Khyiris Tonga, BYU– Fast draft board rising Cougar who excels at clogging up the lanes and stopping the run. He needs work on his development with pass-rushing but can immediately rotate in against short yardage sets. Steelers look to development him as Alualu’s eventual replacement
6th Round (217): G/T Tommy Kraemer, Notre Dame– Irish could have as many as five offensive linemen drafted and Steelers double dip and add a second in the huge and imposing Kraemer. Large frame body that could serve as a backup guard and tackle, but for the NFL his projection seems to be better suited inside
7th Round (244): LB Grant Stuard, Houston– A project for the Steelers who they can develop and let prove himself on special teams in the process
7th Round (253): CB Shemar Jean-Charles, Appalachian State– Small school standout with a good football IQ who they will try out at the slot
Key Undrafted Additions: LB Alani Pufutau, Adam State; P Tyson Dyer, New Mexico
My 202-22 Pittsburgh Steelers
Offense: (30)
QB- Ben Roethlisberger Mason Rudolph Dwayne Haskins/Joshua Dobbs
RB- Javonte Williams ® Benny Snell Jr. Anthony McFarland Jr
FB- Derek Watt Jaylen Samuels (RB)
LT- Chuks Okorfaor Liam Eichenberg ®
LG- Kevin Dotson Aviante Collins
C- Quinn Menerz ® B.J. Finney* (G) J.C. Hassenauer
RG- David DeCastro Tommy Kraemer ®
RT- Zach Banner Kelvin Beachum* Jerald Hawkins
TE- Gerald Everett* Hunter Long ® Zach Gentry/Kevin Rader
WR- Juju Smith-Schuster James Washington Anthony Schwartz ®
WR- Diontae Johnson Chase Claypool Ray-Ray McCloud
Defense: (30)
DE- Cameron Heyward Carlos Davis
NT- Tyson Alualu Isiah Buggs Khyris Tonga ®
DE- Stephon Tuitt Henry Mondeaux
LOLB- T.J. Watt Grant Stuard ® Jayrone Elliott
LILB- Devin Bush Marcus Alen (S) Ulysees Gilbert III
RILB- Robert Spillane Tony Fields ®
ROLB- Bud DuPree Alex Highsmith
LCB- Joe Haden James Pierre Trevor Williams
FS- Minkah Fitzpatrick Antoine Brooks Jr
SS- Terrell Edmunds Sean Davis Jordan Dangerfield
RCB- Steven Nelson Benjamin St-Juste ® Justin Layne
NICK- Cameron Sutton Shemar Jean-Charles ®
Special Teams: (3)
PK- Chris Boswell
P- CAMP BATTLE
LS Kameron Canaday
Analysis: (compared to 2020)
QB- I bring the same three back but I now have Haskins on board. There is upside there, so it is a slight improvement; even if it is putting off Big Ben’s replacement and not having anyone for 2022 (slightly better)
RB- Conner is gone but I KNOW I am getting one early in the draft. Any of the three of Harris, Williams or Etienne is an upgrade here (much better)
OL- It isn’t going to be as smooth as many think when you are replacing over half of your 8-man mix. Adding Beachum and Eichenberg (or other high draft pick) as depth for my projected young starters though is a plus and getting Finney and another drafted guard to back up my starters is also a strength A DeCastro bounce back could make it all fit nicely (better)
WR- I was able to bring JuJu back and now have arguably the best group of wideouts in the league plus McCloud returns and I added a fourth rounder. Big plus, especially if Johnson, Claypool and/or Washington take the next step (better)
TE- Ebron is gone but I added Everett and a high draft pick and hell I might even have enough cash to add a Mercedes Lewis or bring Jesse James back, should he be a Lions cut. None of them are the vertical threat Ebron is; but collectively they bring much more to the table (much better)
DL- My top three return by re-signing Alualu and Tonga gets added to the Buggs/Davis duo for depth. That depth should help offset any decline from my starters (better)
OLB- Bringing DuPree back allows me to let Highsmith rotate in and out and makes this a monster strength with All-World Watt leading the charge. A healthy Bud and progression from Alex is plenty to be excited about. Depth is thin, but that shouldn’t matter as much with these three up top (better)
ILB- A healthy return from Bush automatically makes it better, even though I had to cut Williams. I drafted Fields and Spillane comes back and I think one of Allen or Gilbert might finally be ready to show something. I could possibly still find the coin to bring Vince back cheap or add one more; but considering I could even use Highsmith inside on passing downs it is a good bunch (slightly better)
DB- All four of my safeties come back and I think my starters should be motivated with 5th year options and free-agency looming. Losing Hilton stings, but I was able to keep Sutton, am high on Pierre and I drafted a good one early in St-Juste. Layne is another one I expect to improve (push)
So I am basically the same or better (and in many cases much better) at each position for 2021. Is it enough to compete for one more SB title with Ben? Perhaps
Of course they won’t do half of what I mentioned above or even attempt to in many cases, which only emphasizes how starting the reboot now and saying goodbye to Ben was the way to go….
