The AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (8-3) are out west to take on the San Francisco 49ers (5-6) in the second game of what has become a Monday doubleheader. Below, we’ll look at the top-5 prop bet predictions for the Bills-49ers Monday Night Football matchup.
Due to COVID-19 regulations in Santa Clara, Calif., the game will be played at the Niners’ new temporary home of State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET.
Also see: Bills vs. 49ers odds, picks and prediction
Bills vs. 49ers Week 13 MNF prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Bills QB Josh Allen UNDER 267.5 passing yards (-110)
Allen ranks eighth with an average of 275.3 passing yards per game and has thrown for at least 284 in seven of 11 contests this season.
The Bills’ aerial blitz has slowed down of late, however, with Allen throwing for 263 or fewer yards in four of his last seven outings.
Now, he faces a San Francisco defense surrendering only 217.6 yards per game to opposing QBs — the second-lowest such figure in the league. Only two quarterbacks — Ryan Fitzpatrick with 350 yards in Week 5 and Aaron Rodgers with 305 in Week 9 — have eclipsed 268 yards vs. the Niners this season.
That make this a lean toward the UNDER 267.5 (-110).
Allen OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-121)
Allen has been one of the league’s top QB rushing threats since entering the league in 2018. He has rushed for 30 yards or more in 21 of 40 career games, including one postseason contest and five of 11 games this season.
That’s a bad matchup for a 49ers defense which has surrendered the most rushing yards (341, for an average of 31 per game) to opposing quarterbacks.
Go with the averages and the OVER 29.5 (-121).
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49ers RB Raheem Mostert OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115)
Injuries have limited Mostert, the Niners’ leading rusher, to five games this season, but he’s still averaging a healthy 69.2 yards per contest and 5.2 yards per attempt. He has rushed for 56 or more yards in seven of his last eight games, including three in the 2019 playoffs, since taking over the team’s lead role in Week 12 of last season.
The Bills, meanwhile, entered the weekend allowing the seventh most rushing yards per outing (104.3) to opposing running backs.
With backup QB Nick Mullens at the helm, look for the Niners to rely on the run game, and look for Mostert to hit the OVER 53.5 (-115).
49ers TE Jordan Reed OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-115)
Whether it has been the now-injured George Kittle, Ross Dwelley or Reed, a San Francisco tight end has had 39 or more receiving yards in 10 of 11 games this season in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s TE-friendly scheme.
Reed has done it twice despite lingering injury issues which have limited him to six games this season.
A now healthy Reed figures to get plenty of looks against a Buffalo defense which surrenders the most catches (6.0) and the second-most yards (64.5) on average to opposing tight ends. Dwelley also is still in the San Fran TE mix, but Reed is the more accomplished and athletic option. We’ll go with the OVER 33.5 (-115) in a juicy matchup.
Worth a (long) shot: Reed to score TD and 49ers to win (+400)
In a total tossup game, why not take a shot at quadrupling your money by parlaying two very plausible outcomes?
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