U.S. quiet diplomacy vs. China’s cynical posturing

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TWO SCHOOLS OF DIPLOMACY FACE-OFF — The tide had to turn at some point for the Biden administration. After four months of successfully containing criticism of their transformative domestic, economic and health agenda, and commitment to a human rights-centered foreign policy, the White House has managed to anger its progressive base, democratic allies and authoritarian adversaries all at once: by refusing to lead public calls for a ceasefire in Israel-Palestine hostilities.

What’s the deal with America’s “quiet, intensive diplomacy”? That’s the phrase used publicly by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday, and privately by other sources. Perhaps it was a bit too quiet.

With the Israeli Defense Force asserting that there is no ceasefire in sight, the White House began pushing back against criticism it hasn’t been doing enough. My colleague Nahal Toosi reports that a source told her that the U.S. government helped avert an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. Other dividends claimed by the administration include a delay in the Israeli court case expected to evict Palestinians in east Jerusalem, and the re-routing of a controversial nationalist parade. The New York Times reported on President Joe Biden’s “sharper” tone in private calls with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

But now it’s time to unpack whether the mounting criticisms of Washington will lead to any change on-the-ground or any lasting damage to the U.S. global reputation.

Beijing is loving this, but it shouldn’t get too excited: Foreign Minister Wang Yi cleverly attacked the gap between American words and actions on multilateralism, as the U.S. stymied U.N. debate. But beyond the cheap political point-scoring around Sunday’s U.N. Security Council meeting, China is using America’s refusal to support U.N. action as a chance to build goodwill with Arab states it needs as allies to combat accusations of its own human rights abuses against Uyghur Muslims in the province of Xinjiang. Beijing was also delighted when the Gaza conflict overshadowed a May 13 debate on human rights in Xinjiang organized by the U.S., U.K. and Germany.

The view from Washington: The White House and State Department point out that China’s criticisms should be seen in light of the regime’s genocide against its own people. Throw in bullying of Hong Kong and Taiwan and it’s a healthy reminder that Beijing isn’t about to win any awards from Amnesty International.

American officials additionally believe that China’s diplomacy offers no hope of a breakthrough, because the goal is criticizing America, not changing diplomatic conditions in Israel-Palestine. “We’re not standing in the way of multilateral diplomacy, the U.N. has an important role to play in this, but we would be opposed to anything that would inflame tensions rather than calm them,” a senior State Department official told Global Translations.

With friends like these … Washington’s most vocal ally is the Hungarian government, with Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjártó criticizing the EU on Tuesday for being “one-sided” against Israel, while expressing “full solidarity with Israel.” Under Victor Orbán’s leadership, Hungary has launched crackdowns against its minority Roma population, refugees, and journalists.

Progressive base egged on by foreign criticism: Democrats who previously felt they had little room to maneuver defending Palestinians now feel emboldened to call out Israel and President Joe Biden personally. Matt Duss, a foreign policy adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders, tweeted Tuesday that “another casualty of the Gaza war is the effort to rebuild U.S. credibility on human rights,” which he and Sanders believe cannot survive an ongoing carve-out for alleged illegal Israeli behavior.

Trump officials see Iranian fingerprints: Former secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be addressing the Hudson Institute at 2 p.m. today where, according to prepared text seen by Global Translations, he will tell his audience that Iran is testing the Biden administration via Hamas’ rocket attacks on Israel and that he wanted Palestinian representatives in the Abraham Accords negotiations: “the sole ask of the Palestinians was to sit at the table … but it was clear that they had no interest in resolving this conflict.”

Democratic divide: For an administration that wants to host a summit for democracy later in 2021, and which promised “multilateralism is back, and diplomacy is back, and America is back,” the Biden team is risking a lot of the goodwill it has built up.

Ireland’s U.N. Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason expressed her frustration via email that the U.S. on Tuesday blocked a Security Council agreement “for the fourth time in eight days” on the Gaza crisis (that could soon become a fifth blockage — with France angling for a new ceasefire vote based on the Biden administration’s own language of de-escalation). U.N. Secretary General António Guterres, along with other EU and U.K. officials, are getting more insistent that only a comprehensive peace process can sort out the mess once a ceasefire is in place — but that’s a peace process only the U.S. could realistically lead.

“It’s not fate that the Middle East has to remain trapped in cycles of violence forever, but it will take political capital. I don’t see anyone in the U.S. or Europe willing to spend that capital, to exert that political pressure,” said Michael Bröning, the New York-based executive director of Germany’s Friedrich-Ebert Foundation.

LET’S GET PRACTICAL

How Biden Can Be a Leader in an Israeli-Palestinian Conflict That Has None: There’s no plan for a cease-fire, let alone for peace, but Daniel Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller have published practical steps Biden could take to fill the leadership vacuum.

— Immediately nominate a U.S. ambassador to Israel and appoint a senior full-time representative for shuttle diplomacy with the International Quartet (representatives from the U.N., EU and Russia) and the Arab Quartet (Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates).

— Start an honest dialogue with Israel about steps needed to revive delivery of a two-state solution

— Reopen a consulate general in Jerusalem, and appoint a consul general to intensify direct dialogue with the Palestinian Authority to stop its authoritarian practices and incentives for violence, and hold elections

Worth remembering — there’s one thing missing from this conflict, it’s female leadership. Except for a sprinkling of Tzipi Livni and Hanan Ashwari, there’s been precious little of it in five decades, since the end of Golda Meir’s premiership.

CONFERENCE CANCEL CULTURE

— THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM IS CANCELED, AGAIN: WHO’S NEXT? WEF has a cooperative government in a country that successfully contained Covid-19 (Singapore), a single 5-star venue (Marina Bay Sands) and eight months leeway from their original Davos conference dates … and yet its annual meeting set for late August still fell apart. The best WEF can now promise is an annual meeting “in the first half of 2022.”

WILL THE OLYMPICS TURN INTO A FIVE-RING CIRCUS? More than 80 percent of Japanese oppose hosting the Games according to new polling, and only around 1 in 100 Japanese are vaccinated. Could the two numbers be linked, Global Translations wonders? The other number that may keep the Olympic flame alive for now: $25 billion, what the Japanese government has sunk into hosting the Games. The only consolation if there’s cancellation: $25 billion is peanuts compared to the costs of Covid, economic restrictions and reputational fallout from an Olympic-sized super spreader event.

Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday became the nominal leader of growing calls to boycott Beijing’s 2022 Winter Olympics.

THE FALL CHOPPING BLOCK: The biggest global political events in fall 2021 are due to be hosted in some of the cities and countries hit hardest by Covid. That gives hope that the hosts know what they’re doing by now, but also leaves them on high alert, and the physical events at risk.

By September New York City has a chance at herd immunity: will it risk it by bringing the unvaccinated world to its streets for the U.N. General Assembly? If UNGA doesn’t happen, that will also see a prime parallel opportunity for scheduling the Biden administration’s democracy summit go up in smoke.

In October, Italy is due to host the G-20 and a series of associated conferences, followed by the U.K. hosting the COP26 conference in November. Both Italy and the U.K. have been unafraid to impose long, hard lockdowns to beat Covid.

JOIN GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS AT THE OECD THURSDAY: Ryan Heath will discuss how to measure and manage foreign influence, with John C. Demers, the Justice Department’s Assistant Attorney General, National Security Division.

Pro tip — how not to do it: Universities ‘turn blind eye’ to suspicious foreign donations.

ICYMI: Global Translations at American University, on the future of transatlantic relations.

CLIMATE

— BOMBSHELL ENERGY SECTOR ROAD MAP TO NET ZERO: The International Energy Agency, which creates modeling used by dozens of governments to guide their own policies, has published the first comprehensive road map to net-zero emissions for the energy sector. The bombshell elements: calling for an end to internal combustion engine vehicle sales by 2035 and the shuttering of coal and power plants by 2040.

The report chimes with President Biden joining Ford in the fossil fuel culture war.

TAX

— WHISTLEBLOWING JUST GOT HARDER IN EUROPE: Europe’s top human rights court upheld the conviction of whistleblower Raphaël Halet, a former PwC employee who downloaded tax records from a work computer, revealing how more than 300 global firms slashed their tax bills in deals with the Luxembourg government. Two judges penned a dissent arguing the majority opinion sets too high a bar for future whistleblowers to clear.

COVID

— INDIA TO BLOCK VACCINE EXPORTS UNTIL OCTOBER: This isn’t shocking, given India’s domestic outbreak and the export controls that other leading vaccine producers have in place, but it throws a wrench into the plans of COVAX, the global vaccine facility, which was relying heavily on production from India’s Serum Institute, which is now making no promises beyond resuming exports before the end of the year, Reuters reported.

UNICEF Executive Director, Henrietta Fore, is urging G-7 countries to donate the COVAX doses they are entitled to, while others urge that rich countries hold off vaccinating teenagers until adults in the developing world get more doses.

CHINA

— GERMAN COMPANIES WILL HAVE TO EXIT XIANJING: German companies including Volkswagen, BMW, Adidas, Puma, Bosch and Siemens will likely have to end their business activities in China’s Xinjiang region or face fines under a draft corporate due diligence law targeting human rights violations committed against the Muslim Uyghur minority, which is set to be finalized over the summer. Volkswagen insists that 41 on-site audits of its Chinese suppliers showed no sign of forced labor over the past year.

— BIRTHS IN XINJIANG HALVE: You will have read about the declining overall Chinese birth rate in the country’s latest census, but the drop in Xinjiang’s birth rate is the real news: the largest in recent global history, surpassing declines during Syria’s civil war, as well as Rwandan and Cambodian genocides: that sort of trend does not happen by accident or personal choice.

NEW FINANCE PLAN FOR ECONOMIC AND RACIAL EQUITY: The so-called Corporate Call to Action is backed by Connecticut’s Office of the Treasurer and the Ford Foundation, and includes Citi, Bank of America, State Street, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. It aims for an aggregate economic impact of $30 billion between now and 2026.

How? A more diverse supply chain, including up to $10 billion in new spending with Black-owned businesses; a more diverse “talent pipeline”; new investments in underserved communities. Commitment details here.

GERMANY AND IRELAND GO BIG ON GIRLS’ EDUCATION FUNDING: Malala Yousafzai, and former Australian prime minister Julia Gillard are working with the German and Irish governments to raise $5 billion towards getting 20 million girls at risk of never getting back to school post-pandemic in the world’s poorest countries. Read the investment case.

EUROSTAR TRAIN SERVICE RESCUED: The cross-Channel high-speed railway Eurostar says it will keep operating thanks to a $300 million financing package. In January, the company warned it was running out of cash and has been running only a skeleton service. Eurostar also said it’s also pushing ahead with its planned merger with Thalys, which links Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands by high-speed train.

GLOBAL FORUM ON ECONOMIC RECOVERY: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce event takes place from 9 a.m. to 12 noon today at this link.

Thanks to editor Ben Pauker, Nahal Toosi, Laurenz Gehrke and Joshua Posaner