The Logic Behind Ryan Pace’s Grand Plan
The grand plan of Bears GM Ryan Pace became more apparent as it unfolded.
The first few steps made it confusing but there really is collaboration occurring as it proceeds.
Pace plans to turn the Bears into a far more explosive team, one capable of more than nine points in a playoff game. Matt Nagy and Pace saw how little a threat their offense posed for the Saints in their 21-9 loss, and how the game was there to be won except for a lack of healthy or level-headed receivers.
The quarterback didn’t exactly scare anyone, either.
At the same time, they had two key defensive players either in their 30s or on the verge and the were going to eat up cap space. So they decided the best approach to getting the offense better would be to weaken the defense by making it younger, so Kyle Fuller and Akiem Hicks became expendable.
This falls under the heading of “be careful what you wish for.”
They’re doing this all with one possibility in mind, but like Pace said, they need to be able to pivot.
That possibility is Russell Wilson still being available for trade.
Even after Wilson’s tweet on Friday congratulating teammate Chris Carson on his new contract and adding “Let’s Go 32,” this could still happen.
Unless the Seahawks executed their right of contract and restructured his salary, Wilson is still a possibility.
The Bears now have a quarterback they can offer back in return in Andy Dalton, and it’s a passer Seattle was said to like. They would be getting draft picks in a trade and could try to acquire a younger QB, too.
The Bears still have 34-year-old tight end Jimmy Graham on the roster when they could have taken a cap savings to help avoid getting rid of Akiem Hicks and Kyle Fuller. And Graham is Wilson’s friend. Why would they keep him if they don’t think there still might be a chance, even if it’s one in a million?
None of this is to suggest it’s happening. Letting it get out what they actually offered doesn’t help them—three first-round picks, a third and two players, possibly Hicks and Fuller. Now, the Seahawks or anyone else could wait until this situation ferments and merely pick up Fuller and Hicks, unless the Bears do come up with a different trading partner who might even help by providing an extra draft pick.
What Pace has done is put himself in position to make such a move if it actually becomes possible, and if rebuffed he is positioned to take the plan another way. That direction would still include a more explosive offense.
It explains the interest in Kenny Golladay even after tagging Allen Robinson. They could do any number of things if the Wilson deal remains fantasy, such as signing Golladay and trading Robinson to get more trading materal for the Seahawks. Or they could keep both and really become feared at receiver.
Pace has left himself options and the direction they go in the draft will depend on all of this, as well.
There are problems or dangers with the plan and here is why it’s all a gamble:
1. The Offensive Line
They really have done nothing to upgrade the line beyond getting Germain Ifedi signed and James Daniels healthy. Tackle must be addressed. They tried with Trent Williams and failed, and the only real remaining options might not be viable or upgrades over Charles Leno Jr. That would be injured Eric Fisher or Carolina’s Russell Okung. Ifedi, himself, is no sure bet. He showed he could play tackle last year against some weak defenses. So they’d need to find a tackle(s) in the draft. Without this, they might not be able to protect Wilson, let alone a much slower Dalton. They could sign Kenny Golladay and this whole plan tanks if they can’t protect the quarterback or block the run.
2. The Defensive Loss
Once Fuller and Hicks are gone, the defensive decline will be massive. Offenses picked on Jaylon Johnson last year out of fear of Kyle Fuller. Johnson hasn’t made an interception yet. Desmond Trufant hasn’t done much beyond make an injured reserve list since 2017, so he’s no answer. In the last two years, when either Hicks or Eddie Goldman missed games, the Bears allowed just over 29 more yards rushing a game. That’s an important decline. Not only that, but Hicks’ absence can lead to a decline in Khalil Mack’s pass rush.
3. Golladay?
The report from Brad Biggs of the Tribune said they offered $11 million to Golladay. The Giants almost certainly can afford more, although they haven’t signed him as of Saturday morning. Where do they pivot for this part of the plan if Golladay signs with the Giants? There’s a huge drop in talent level to players like DeDe Westbrook, Sammy Watkins and Chris Conley. Free agency probably wouldn’t even provide the answer. They’d have to come up with a drafted receiver who can greatly upgrade their receiver corps and that’s no certainty, even if they don’t get Wilson and still have the draft picks. Not all the first- and second-round receivers taken in last year’s draft panned out, either, and that was supposed to be the greatest draft class for receivers of all time until this draft class.
4. The Money
Because of how tight the cap space is for this plan to work, one missing piece seems capable of bringing down the whole plan like a house of cards. The cash shortage can prevent alternative options. Picking up the mess will be difficult.
Expect
It’s at least refreshing to see there is purpose to to plan. It just won’t work.
A Wilson acquisition doesn’t happen because Pete Carroll won’t let it. Golladay will sign elsewhere. Hicks and Fuller are leaving and the Bears will need to get younger and—at least initially—weaker on defense. Andy Dalton will be the quarterback and the offensive line will be no more able to protect him than with immobile Nick Foles last year.
It will be apparent by midseason whether there needs to be front-office and coaching change as the plan either never materializes properly or totally unravels.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
