A healthy Byron Buxton is a nightmare for pitchers and hitters, alike
By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer
Sitting here two weeks into the season, I’m ready to once again ask the question that so many fans and media alike have wondered aloud at various points over the last half-decade or so: Is the full-blown Byron Buxton breakout finally upon us?
Going into Wednesday’s games, Buxton sat alone atop the WAR leaderboards at both FanGraphs and baseball-reference, just a smidge ahead of two gentlemen you are likely quite familiar with: Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mike Trout.
Also on Wednesday, we got this report during the Twins’ double-header vs. the Red Sox:
*long sigh*
Buxton will also be out of the lineup Thursday, and for most players, this kind of news would be hardly worth a mention. Hamstring tightness is awfully common for big leaguers over the course of 162-game seasons.
But anyone who has followed Buxton’s career knows it would be all too naive to pretend like this news doesn’t feel all too familiar. Somewhat incredibly, his lengthy record of IL-stints doesn’t include a single hamstring-related one, arguably making this latest injury pause all the eerier.
For the 27-year-old Buxton, each injury scare has started to feel like he is flying too close to the sun, too close to fulfilling the prophecy of his prospect days that he could become one of the game’s truly elite players – only to be restrained by the misfortune of his own health and inability to stay on the field long enough to prove it.
But enough about the injuries. It’s an undeniable part of the Buxton story, but it doesn’t have to be the story if his game continues to progress at the supersonic pace he has displayed so far this season. We’ll cautiously take the Twins at their word and believe this hamstring issue is a minor one. Let’s talk about why I’m so excited about the latest and greatest version of Byron Buxton.
What did we know for sure about Buxton heading into this season?
He’s really, truly, spectacularly fast. His career average 30.6 feet/sec sprint speed is second only to Tim Locastro in MLB in the Statcast Era, and it is absolutely breathtaking watching him run, whether that be on the bases …
… or in the outfield, where he has established himself as one of, if not the, best defensive center fielders in baseball. The jaw-dropping plays began long before he was even in Minnesota, with one particular catch with the Low-A Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2013:
And the acrobatics only continued once he did reach the big leagues:
The arm isn’t bad either:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCQo7NiPLhM
We also knew that Buxton had begun to level up his offensive game significantly in 2019 and 2020, with an .833 OPS in 126 games over those two seasons, a far cry from the .672 OPS he had posted in his first four seasons combined. Even merely above-average offensive production from a player with Buxton’s defensive ability is already worthy of down-ballot MVP consideration. What he has shown so far in 2021, however, might propel him closer to the actual MVP conversation and not just garner a few spare ninth-place votes.
Buxton’s five home runs through his first nine games are impressive by any measure, but especially considering he has never gotten off to a start like this in any other season, with just one HR total in 75 career April games before 2021. Let’s take a closer look at his five dingers:
Dinger #1: Opening Day vs. Milwaukee
What better way to start your season than hitting the longest homer of your career? That’s right – in his fourth plate appearance of the year after two strikeouts and a walk, the first ball Buxton put in play in 2021 went a whopping 456 feet, topping his previous career-best mark of 454 set in 2019 vs. Cleveland. OK, Mr. Buxton, you have my attention.
Dinger #2: No more no-no
Amidst a tremendous pitching duel between José Berríos and Corbin Burnes, Buxton stole the show. In his third at-bat against Burnes (who, by the way, is really, really, really good), Buxton took a perfectly executed 96 MPH cutter and calmly deposited it beyond the right-center field fence as if that isn’t the most ridiculous athletic feat you’ve ever seen. No-no over. Twins lead. Ho-hum.
Wait, WHAT?!
The level of pure hitting acumen this kind of swing requires is not something even the biggest of Buxton fans could have ever expected from him. And yet … there it is. He just did it. I watched it with my own eyes, and you did too. Spectacular.
Dinger #3: Going deep in Detroit
Three days later in Detroit, Buxton unloaded on a ball to left field for a game-tying homer that clocked in at 451 feet and a preposterous 114.1 MPH exit velocity, the hardest-hit home run of his 56 career long balls. That’s right – two of his first three home runs were personal-bests!
Dinger #4: Legendary launch angle
It’s one thing to hit the ball hard, but you’ve got to have some special kind of juice if you can hit it that hard at that steep of an angle. That’s certainly not your average moonshot, and the fact he can physically do something that basically only Pete Alonso and Bryce Harper have done should start to give you a sense of the kind of power we’re talking about
Dinger #5: Just a really sweet dinger
All right, there’s no extra level to this dinger (although it was the fifth hardest-hit HR of his career), it’s just a wonderfully majestic tater – and the bullpen was loving it (look closely!).
So, to recap: Of Buxton’s five home runs this year, four of them were among the eight hardest-hit homers of his career, and the fifth one was one of the most impressive pieces of hitting you might see all season.
Is that good?
With these five swings, the presumed ceiling on Buxton’s power has seemingly been shattered. His newfound ability to hit the ball extremely hard more consistently – combined with the elite athleticism he already possessed – has put him into, shall we say, decent company:
I know, I know – it’s a small sample, and Buxton is not a perfect player by any means. To truly ascend to the tippy-top tier of Acuña Jr./Trout, etc., there are improvements to be made. His glaring weakness remains his inability to draw walks at even an average rate, let alone an elite one like Trout. He also doesn’t swipe as many bags as you would expect for someone with his elite speed, while Acuña Jr. seems prepared to challenge for a 40/40 season.
But Buxton’s overall game continues to develop at an exhilarating pace, and he’s not even 28 years old. And if this kind of power really is here to stay, you won’t just be watching Twins games to see if Buxton makes a crazy catch in center field. You’ll be tuning in for his at-bats to see if he hits one 450+ feet.
Because yeah, he can do that, too.
Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in Maryland but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn’t get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter at @j_shusterman_.
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