2021 Projections Review: SS & Outfielders
Here’s the second of three projection review columns, this one looking at shortstops and outfielders. Starting pitchers will come next week. I’m highlighting my preseason top 10 shortstops and top 30 outfielders here, plus all others I deem notable.
Shortstops
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. – Padres
Projection: .290/.372/.605, 44 HR, 111 R, 105 RBI, 23 SB in 544 AB
2021 stats: .282/.364/.611, 42 HR, 99 R, 97 RBI, 25 SB in 478 AB
This would have been an insane showing for a 22-year-old with two healthy shoulders. That he did it in 130 games, only the first few of which he was at 100 percent, is ridiculous. Tatis’s OPS+s in his three seasons to date are 154, 156 and 166. You can find some Hall of Fame-type players who never topped any of those marks in a single season. Derek Jeter is one.
2. Trea Turner – Nationals/Dodgers
Projection: .303/.364/.538, 30 HR, 103 R, 94 RBI, 32 SB in 580 AB
2021 stats: .328/.375/.536, 28 HR, 107 R, 77 RBI, 32 SB in 595 AB
3. Trevor Story – Rockies
Projection: .291/.366/.561, 36 HR, 106 R, 95 RBI, 25 SB in 574 AB
2021 stats: .251/.329/.471, 24 HR, 88 R, 75 RBI, 20 SB in 526 AB
Despite being mystified by the lack of a trade, Story picked it up after staying with the Rockies at the deadline, hitting .268/.356/.542 with 11 homers in his final 52 games. Away from Coors, he’s probably not going to be more than a .250-.260 hitter, but his power numbers should be fine. I assume he’ll be somewhere in the 6-10 range among shortstops next year.
4. Francisco Lindor – Mets
Projection: .276/.341/.509, 34 HR, 105 R, 91 RBI, 18 SB in 609 AB
2021 stats: .230/.322/.412, 20 HR, 73 R, 63 RBI, 10 SB in 452 AB
Lindor was up to .258/.341/.492 with 17 homers in his final 295 at-bats. I wonder just how far he’ll slip in drafts next spring… he could wind up being a pretty good target.
5. Corey Seager – Dodgers
Projection: .300/.359/.559, 36 HR, 101 R, 112 RBI, 2 SB in 576 AB
2021 stats: .306/.394/.521, 16 HR, 54 R, 57 RBI, 1 SB in 353 AB
6. Bo Bichette – Blue Jays
Projection: .289/.334/.510, 28 HR, 93 R, 94 RBI, 17 SB in 596 AB
2021 stats: .298/.343/.484, 29 HR, 121 R, 102 RBI, 25 SB in 640 AB
Bichette will be a top-10 pick everywhere next season, obviously.
7. Adalberto Mondesi – Royals
Projection: .254/.292/.436, 17 HR, 67 R, 66 RBI, 46 SB in 500 AB
2021 stats: .230/.271/.452, 6 HR, 19 R, 17 RBI, 15 SB in 126 AB
Just for fun, quadrupling Mondesi’s season totals from 35 to 140 games would put him at 24 homers and 60 steals. And he wasn’t even fully healthy in the games in which he did play. I’m going to have fun gambling on him next year.
8. Xander Bogaerts – Red Sox
Projection: .290/.361/.514, 29 HR, 100 R, 92 RBI, 12 SB in 580 AB
2021 stats: .295/.370/.493, 23 HR, 90 R, 79 RBI, 5 SB in 529 AB
9. Carlos Correa – Astros
Projection: .285/.362/.547. 35 HR, 89 R, 104 RBI, 2 SB in 516 AB
2021 stats: .279/.366/.485, 26 HR, 104 R, 92 RBI, 0 SB in 555 AB
I’m a little bitter that Correa hit in the top four spots in the Houston lineup only about one-third of the time. I know Dusty Baker had an abundance of quality options, but with the way he lined them up, the Astros ended up getting a .778 OPS from their top three spots in the order and an .881 OPS from the fourth through sixth spots.
10. Javier Baez – Cubs/Mets
Projection: .272/.313/.505, 32 HR, 89 R, 96 RBI, 11 SB in 588 AB
2021 stats: .265/.319/.494, 31 HR, 80 R, 87 RBI, 18 SB in 502 AB
11. Tim Anderson – White Sox
Projection: .284/.321/.456, 23 HR, 89 R, 74 RBI, 18 SB in 605 AB
2021 stats: .309/.338/.469, 17 HR, 94 R, 61 RBI, 18 SB in 527 AB
12. Gleyber Torres – Yankees
Projection: .277/.351/.517, 34 HR, 92 R, 99 RBI, 4 SB in 563 AB
2021 stats: .259/.331/.366, 9 HR, 50 R, 51 RBI, 14 SB in 459 AB
At least Torres stole more bases this year than in his first three seasons combined (12). Torres’s Statcast numbers weren’t as bleak as his .366 slugging percentage suggests. In fact, his xwOBA has basically been the same each season of his career. I don’t think I’ve ever drafted Torres in a fantasy league, but that could change with his ADP sure to drop next spring.
13. Dansby Swanson – Braves
Projection: .273/.340/.490, 27 HR, 84 R, 89 RBI, 10 SB in 543 AB
2021 stats: .248/.311/.449, 27 HR, 78 R, 88 RBI, 9 SB in 588 AB
15. Willi Castro – Tigers
Projection: .278/.326/.452, 18 HR, 77 R, 80 RBI, 11 SB in 571 AB
2021 stats: .220/.273/.351, 9 HR, 56 R, 38 RBI, 9 SB in 413 AB
This is one I feel bad about. It wasn’t unreasonable, given that Castro did hit .349/.381/.550 in 140 plate appearances in 2020, but I put too much weight on those 36 games. I think Castro could bounce back when it comes to batting average, but he just doesn’t seem to have all that much power, and with his struggles defensively, there wouldn’t seem to be reason for the Tigers to pencil him in as a regular next year.
16. Amed Rosario – Indians
Projection: .280/.319/.443, 15 HR, 71 R, 67 RBI, 17 SB in 522 AB
2021 stats: .282/.321/.409, 11 HR, 77 R, 57 RBI, 13 SB in 550 AB
I wish Rosario had done more running; he attempted 35 steals in 2018 and 29 in 2019. This year, he only attempted the 13, though he was perfect when he went. At least that is better than 2020, when he went 0-for-1 in 46 games.
17. Marcus Semien – Blue Jays
Projection: .261/.340/.454, 24 HR, 86 R, 77 RBI, 8 SB in 551 AB
2021 stats: .265/.334/.538, 45 HR, 115 R, 102 RBI, 15 SB in 652 AB
Unlike with Castro, I don’t look at this one and think I should have done something differently. Semien crushed it, obviously. A little boost in exit velocity helped, and he homered on 18.4% of his flyballs, compared to 11.2% previously in his career.
18. Willy Adames – Rays/Brewers
Projection: .267/.336/.472, 25 HR, 80 R, 79 RBI, 6 SB in 536 AB
2021 stats: .262/.337/.481, 25 HR, 77 R, 73 RBI, 5 SB in 497 AB
This projection probably wouldn’t have turned out nearly as well had Adames stayed put in Tampa Bay. He had a .625 OPS prior to the trade and an .886 OPS afterwards.
19. Andres Gimenez – Indians
Projection: .253/.319/.401, 14 HR, 69 R, 57 RBI, 26 SB in 509 AB
2021 stats: .218/.282/.351, 5 HR, 23 R, 16 RBI, 11 SB in 188 AB
Because of the 11 steals in just 210 plate appearances, it’s going to be tempting to make Gimenez an end-game guy next year in mixed leagues. Still, he was a brutal offensive player this year and perhaps even worse than his line indicates. Statcast had him with an expected slugging percentage of .309.
21. Jorge Polanco – Twins
Projection: .274/.335/.448, 17 HR, 75 R, 68 RBI, 8 SB in 507 AB
2021 stats: .269/.323/.503, 33 HR, 97 R, 98 RBI, 11 SB in 588 AB
22. Ha-Seong Kim – Padres
Projection: .263/.347/.441, 17 HR, 65 R, 56 RBI, 14 SB in 422 AB
2021 stats: .202/.270/.352, 8 HR, 27 R, 34 RBI, 6 SB in 267 AB
23. Didi Gregorius – Phillies
Projection: .259/.312/.462, 25 HR, 71 R, 79 RBI, 5 SB in 522 AB
2021 stats: .209/.270/.370, 13 HR, 35 R, 54 RBI, 3 SB in 368 AB
27. Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Rangers
Projection: .267/.328/.380, 9 HR, 78 R, 58 RBI, 14 SB in 577 AB
2021 stats: .271/.312/.357, 8 HR, 74 R, 53 RBI, 20 SB in 635 AB
31. Jazz Chisholm – Marlins
Projection: .239/.310/.411, 17 HR, 58 R, 56 RBI, 15 SB in 448 AB
2021 stats: .248/.303/.425, 18 HR, 70 R, 53 RBI, 23 SB in 464 AB
Following a scorching start, Chisholm hit pretty much as expected as a 23-year-old rookie with no Triple-A experience. I anticipate a few more homers next year. I don’t know that he’s ready to hit for average just yet, but he’ll get there. His contact numbers aren’t as bad as his 29% strikeout rate suggests.
32. J.P. Crawford – Mariners
Projection: .243/.331/.396, 16 HR, 80 R, 60 RBI, 10 SB in 538 AB
2021 stats: .273/.338/.376, 9 HR, 89 R, 54 RBI, 3 SB in 619 AB
Nine homers and three steals in 687 plate appearances. The only other player to get at least 600 plate appearances and finish in single digits in both categories during the last four years was David Fletcher (six homers, eight steals) in 2019.
34. Miguel Rojas – Marlins
Projection: .269/.335/.402, 12 HR, 62 R, 58 RBI, 9 SB in 487 AB
2021 stats: .265/.322/.392, 9 HR, 66 R, 48 RBI, 13 SB in 495 AB
36. Jose Iglesias – Angels/Red Sox
Projection: .273/.310/.396, 11 HR, 58 R, 56 RBI, 5 SB in 490 AB
2021 stats: .271/.309/.391, 9 HR, 65 R, 48 RBI, 5 SB in 483 AB
38. Chris Taylor – Dodgers
Projection: .251/.329/.430, 13 HR, 52 R, 47 RBI, 6 SB in 351 AB
2021 stats: .254/.344/.438, 20 HR, 92 R, 73 RBI, 13 SB in 507 AB
47. Wander Franco – Rays
Projection: .269/.327/.423, 4 HR, 25 R, 24 RBI, 5 SB in 182 AB
2021 stats: .288/.347/.463, 7 HR, 53 R, 39 RBI, 2 SB in 281 AB
48. Brandon Crawford – Giants
Projection: .238/.302/.383, 15 HR, 59 R, 61 RBI, 2 SB in 488 AB
2021 stats: .298/.373/.522, 24 HR, 79 R, 90 RBI, 11 SB in 483 AB
The 11 steals were just an added insult here. He had stolen 11 bases the previous four seasons combined, and he had never had more than seven in a season. He also beat his career high in homers by three, in runs scored by 12, in RBI by six and in average by 23 points, and all of those previous season highs were set five years ago.
Outfielders
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. – Braves
Projection: .281/.382/.592, 47 HR, 130 R, 103 RBI, 30 SB in 583 AB
2021 stats: .283/.394/.596, 24 HR, 72 R, 52 RBI, 17 SB in 297 AB
2. Juan Soto – Nationals
Projection: .318/.436/.631, 42 HR, 122 R, 115 RBI, 12 SB in 544 AB
2021 stats: .313/.465/.534, 29 HR, 111 R, 95 RBI, 9 SB in 502 AB
It took Soto too long to find his power stroke, but once he did, he slugged .639 after the All-Star break.
3. Christian Yelich – Brewers
Projection: .295/.401/.596, 43 HR, 112 R, 105 RBI. 15 SB in 550 AB
2021 stats: .248/.362/.373, 9 HR, 70 R, 51 RBI, 9 SB in 399 AB
I sincerely hope that Yelich can move past his back problems and reemerge as superstar. I don’t think I’ll be placing a big bet on it next spring, though.
4. Mookie Betts – Dodgers
Projection: .293/.374/.547, 37 HR, 125 R, 85 RBI, 21 SB in 591 AB
2021 stats: .264/.367/.487, 23 HR, 93 R, 58 RBI, 10 SB in 466 AB
5. Mike Trout – Angels
Projection: .293/.430/.629, 46 HR, 116 R, 110 RBI, 7 SB in 512 AB
2021 stats: .333/.466/.624, 8 HR, 23 R, 18 RBI, 2 SB in 117 AB
6. Bryce Harper – Phillies
Projection: .273/.405/.581, 43 HR, 112 R, 108 RBI, 13 SB in 532 AB
2021 stats: .309/.429/.615, 35 HR, 101 R, 84 RBI, 13 SB in 488 AB
8. Luis Robert – White Sox
Projection: .262/.309/.510, 34 HR, 85 R, 92 RBI, 30 SB in 573 AB
2021 stats: .338/.378/.567, 13 HR, 42 R, 43 RBI, 6 SB in 275 AB
9. Byron Buxton – Phillies
Projection: .271/.312/.555, 37 HR, 83 R, 94 RBI, 20 SB in 517 AB
2021 stats: .306/.358/.647, 19 HR, 50 R, 32 RBI, 9 SB in 235 AB
My aggressive Buxton projection still undersold him by 134 points of OPS. As for durability, I did project him for 60 fewer place appearances than any other top-10 outfielder, though that doesn’t show up as well in the at-bats because of his low walk rate.
10. Kyle Tucker – Astros
Projection: .272/.337/.513, 32 HR, 89 R, 97 RBI, 22 SB in 569 AB
2021 stats: .294/.359/.557, 30 HR, 83 R, 92 RBI, 14 SB in 506 AB
11. Marcell Ozuna – Braves
Projection: .286/.367/.539, 35 HR, 90 R, 110 RBI, 4 SB in 542 AB
2021 stats: .213/.288/.356, 7 HR, 21 R, 26 RBI, 0 SB in 188 AB
13. Randy Arozarena – Rays
Projection: .266/.350/.514, 33 HR, 92 R, 94 RBI, 17 SB in 549 AB
2021 stats: .274/.356/.459, 20 HR, 94 R, 69 RBI, 20 SB in 529 AB
Just as an aside, No. 7 here was Cody Bellinger and No. 12 was Whit Merrifield. They were both listed at other positions in last week’s column.
Even though the power production from the 2020 postseason didn’t nearly carry over, Arozarena was an excellent fantasy outfielder. Statcast hated him, though, giving him a .216 xBA and a .358 xSLG. His exit velocity numbers just weren’t that impressive, and he hit a few too many grounders. I don’t think I’ll be recommending him next year.
14. Teoscar Hernandez – Blue Jays
Projection: .255/.321/.555, 43 HR, 90 R, 106 RBI, 10 SB in 546 AB
2021 stats: .296/.346/.524, 32 HR, 92 R, 116 RBI, 12 SB in 550 AB
15. Aaron Judge – Yankees
Projection: .266/.382/.561, 42 HR, 107 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 515 AB
2021 stats: .287/.373/.544, 39 HR, 89 R, 98 RBI, 6 SB in 550 AB
Until coming in at 73.4% this year, Judge never had better than a 67.6% contact rate previously. That’s a big jump, and it helped him set a new high in average, even though his BABIP was down 25-35 points from where he finished in 2017-19.
16. George Springer – Blue Jays
Projection: .274/.362/.534, 37 HR, 105 R, 87 RBI, 4 SB in 537 AB
2021 stats: .264/.352/.555, 22 HR, 59 R, 50 RBI, 4 SB in 299 AB
17. Eddie Rosario – Indians/Braves
Projection: .285/.325/.523, 34 HR, 84 R, 101 RBI, 4 SB in 564 AB
2021 stats: .259/.305/.435, 14 HR, 42 R, 62 RBI, 11 SB in 379 AB
.271/.330/.573 in 106 PA after joining the Braves. I expect that I’ll have a bunch of shares of Rosario at a deep discount next year.
18. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Blue Jays
Projection: .281/.331/.515, 32 HR, 86 R, 98 RBI, 6 SB in 573 AB
2021 stats: .276/.319/.466, 21 HR, 62 R, 84 RBI, 1 SB in 500 AB
19. Ian Happ – Cubs
Projection: .265/.350/.527, 37 HR, 103 R, 84 RBI, 8 SB in 566 AB
2021 stats: .226/.323/.434, 25 HR, 63 R, 66 RBI, 9 SB in 465 AB
I think Happ was unlucky early on, but then he was legitimately bad for a spell before getting it together in mid-August and hitting .323/.400/.665 in his final 44 games. He also stole eight of his nine bases during the final quarter of the season. I don’t know that he’ll keep that up, but I’ll be fairly high on him again next spring.
20. Nick Senzel – Reds
Projection: .273/.336/.477, 25 HR, 92 R, 73 RBI, 20 SB in 575 AB
2021 stats: .252/.323/.315, 1 HR, 18 R, 8 RBI, 2 SB in 111 AB
I’ll also love Senzel as an end-game pick if he looks healthy next spring. Statcast thinks he hit the ball much better than his line suggests, giving him a .303 xBA and a .427 xSLG.
21. Charlie Blackmon – Rockies
Projection: .297/.363/.509, 27 HR, 91 R, 92 RBI, 4 SB in 572 AB
2021 stats: .270/.351/.411, 13 HR, 76 R, 78 RBI, 3 SB in 514 AB
22. Starling Marte – Marlins/Athletics
Projection: .280/.332/.447, 18 HR, 86 R, 69 RBI, 24 SB in 568 AB
2021 stats: .308/.381/.456, 12 HR, 89 R, 55 RBI, 47 SB in 467 AB
23. Austin Meadows – Rays
Projection: .271/.337/.510, 31 HR, 90 R, 80 RBI, 12 SB in 557 AB
2021 stats: .234/.315/.458, 27 HR, 79 R, 106 RBI, 4 SB in 518 AB
Meadows opened the year hitting first and second, which is why I had him with more runs than RBI. He ended up driving in 60 runs in his 54 games hitting cleanup, which is awfully good. That he hit .085 and slugged .094 in 33 games (30 starts) batting third is one of my favorite oddities of the season. He hit .277 and slugged .564 in 401 at-bats elsewhere in the lineup.
24. Trent Grisham – Padres
Projection: .249/.352/.446, 24 HR, 97 R, 65 RBI, 24 SB in 531 AB
2021 stats: .242/.327/.413, 15 HR, 61 R, 62 RBI, 13 SB in 462 AB
27. Anthony Santander – Orioles
Projection: .267/.312/.511, 36 HR, 88 R, 95 RBI, 4 SB in 585 AB
2021 stats: .241/.286/.433, 18 HR, 54 R, 50 RBI, 1 SB in 406 AB
28. Nick Castellanos – Reds
Projection: .272/.332/.512, 34 HR, 91 R, 96 RBI, 2 SB in 592 AB
2021 stats: .309/.362/.576, 34 HR, 95 R, 100 RBI, 3 SB in 531 AB
29. Ramon Laureano – Athletics
Projection: .264/.244/.467, 25 HR, 90 R, 77 RBI, 14 SB in 546 AB
2021 stats: .246/.317/.443, 14 HR, 43 R, 39 RBI, 12 SB in 341 AB
31. Max Kepler – Twins
Projection: .254/.340/.513, 36 HR, 95 R, 85 RBI, 5 SB in 548 AB
2021 stats: .211/.306/.413, 19 HR, 61 R, 54 RBI, 10 SB in 426 AB
32. Alex Verdugo – Red Sox
Projection: .291/.354/.462, 18 HR, 93 R, 74 RBI, 9 SB in 578 AB
2021 stats: .289/.351/.426, 13 HR, 88 R, 63 RBI, 6 SB in 544 AB
34. Wil Myers – Padres
Projection: .254/.332/.497, 31 HR, 79 R, 83 RBI, 13 SB in 519 AB
2021 stats: .256/.334/.434, 17 HR, 56 R, 63 RBI, 8 SB in 442 AB
35. Clint Frazier – Yankees
Projection: .266/.346/.512, 30 HR, 81 R, 86 RBI, 6 SB in 500 AB
2021 stats: .186/.317/.317, 5 HR, 20 R, 15 RBI, 2 SB in 183 AB
36. Andrew Benintendi – Royals
Projection: .281/.356/.444, 17 HR, 84 R, 75 RBI, 13 SB in 545 AB
2021 stats: .276/.324/.442, 17 HR, 63 R, 73 RBI, 8 SB in 493 AB
There was some hope Benintendi would steal 20 or more bases for the runnin’ Royals, but he terrible in that department, getting caught several times early. He ended up 8-for-17 overall and 1-for-4 in his final 83 games. It was pretty bizarre, as Benintendi was a fine 53-for-66 stealing bases in his Red Sox career.
38. Victor Robles – Nationals
Projection: .257/.331/.402, 16 HR, 83 R, 61 RBI, 26 SB in 564 AB
2021 stats: .203/.310/.295, 2 HR, 37 R, 19 RBI, 8 SB in 315 AB
40. Joey Gallo – Rangers/Yankees
Projection: .218/.336/.501, 41 HR, 94 R, 97 RBI, 6 SB in 541 AB
2021 stats: .199/.351/.458, 38 HR, 90 R, 77 RBI, 7 SB in 498 AB
Gallo was at .223/.379/.490 with the best walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career when he was traded to the Yankees and pretty much fell apart. There’s a decent chance he’ll set a new career high in homers while playing in Yankee Stadium next year, but even so, I’ll again probably be lower on him than most. The batting average weighs so heavily.
41. Michael Conforto – Mets
Projection: .258/.358/.479, 29 HR, 88 R, 86 RBI, 5 SB in 535 AB
2021 stats: .232/.344/.384, 14 HR, 52 R, 55 RBI, 1 SB in 406 AB
43. Raimel Tapia – Rockies
Projection: .289/.338/.428, 10 HR, 78 R, 59 RBI, 18 SB in 544 AB
2021 stats: .273/.327/.372, 6 HR, 69 R, 50 RBI, 20 SB in 487 AB
44. Kyle Schwarber – Nationals/Red Sox
Projection: .252/.351/.531, 36 HR, 83 R, 88 RBI, 2 SB in 480 AB
2021 stats: .266/.374/.554, 32 HR, 76 R, 71 RBI, 1 SB in 399 AB
48. Austin Hays – Orioles
Projection: .269/.315/.460, 23 HR, 75 R, 73 RBI, 11 SB in 531 AB
2021 stats: .256/.308/.461, 22 HR, 73 R, 71 RBI, 4 SB in 488 AB
49. Jesse Winker – Reds
Projection: .273/.373/.516, 29 HR, 84 R, 70 RBI, 2 SB in 465 AB
2021 stats: .305/.394/.556, 24 HR, 77 R, 71 RBI, 1 SB in 423 AB
52. Dylan Carlson – Cardinals
Projection: .257/.331/.452, 23 HR, 77 R, 77 RBI, 11 SB in 540 AB
2021 stats: .266/.343/.437, 18 HR, 79 R, 65 RBI, 2 SB in 542 AB
Carlson performed about as well as expected as a rookie, but his Baseball Savant page is rather disappointing. Particularly discouraging was the 30.6% hard-hit rate, which was in the ninth percentile among semi-regulars. I don’t doubt that he’s here to stay as a fine regular, but I do wonder about his upside.
53. Trey Mancini – Orioles
Projection: .264/.334/.483, 30 HR, 81 R, 86 RBI, 1 SB in 557 AB
2021 stats: .255/.326/.432, 21 HR, 77 R, 71 RBI, 0 SB in 556 AB
55. Franchy Cordero – Red Sox
Projection: .246/.306/.473, 22 HR, 62 R, 68 RBI, 17 SB in 448 AB
2021 stats: .189/.237/.260, 1 HR, 12 R, 9 RBI, 1 SB in 127 AB
Taking a big loss here. What makes it hurt even more is that I would have had Hunter Renfroe as a top-50 outfielder had I thought Cordero was going to bust.
56. Michael Brantley – Astros
Projection: .289/.357/.440, 16 HR, 82 R, 70 RBI, 4 SB in 539 AB
2021 stats: .311/.362/.437, 8 HR, 68 R, 47 RBI, 1 SB in 469 AB
60. Mitch Haniger – Mariners
Projection: .255/.349/.476, 27 HR, 86 R, 67 RBI, 7 SB in 502 AB
2021 stats: .253/.318/.485, 39 HR, 110 R, 100 RBI, 1 SB in 620 AB
Imagine a Mariners player reaching the century mark in both runs and RBI. In 2019, Daniel Vogelbach led the team in each category, finishing with 73 runs scored and 76 RBI.
61. A.J. Pollock – Dodgers
Projection: .259/.321/.479, 25 HR, 69 R, 70 RBI, 7 SB in 455 AB
2021 stats: .297/.355/.536, 21 HR, 53 R, 69 RBI, 9 SB in 384 AB
62. Andrew McCutchen – Phillies
Projection: .248/.355/.445, 25 HR, 94 R, 63 RBI, 7 SB in 521 AB
2021 stats: .222/.334/.444, 27 HR, 78 R, 80 RBI, 6 SB in 482 AB
64. Tyler O’Neill – Cardinals
Projection: .242/.307/.446, 25 HR, 71 R, 71 RBI, 13 SB in 500 AB
2021 stats: .286/.352/.560, 34 HR, 89 R, 80 RBI, 15 SB in 482 AB
This projection wasn’t shaping up all that badly until O’Neill exploded with 13 homers and 30 RBI in Sepember. O’Neill has always had plenty of strength, but he came into the season with a career average exit velocity of 89.6 mph and a hard-hit rate of 40%. This season, he was up to 93.0 mph and 52.2%, placing him in the 94th and 93rd percentiles, respectively.
69. Jarred Kelenic – Mariners
Projection: .256/.319/.451, 18 HR, 55 R, 59 RBI, 12 SB in 406 AB
2021 stats: .181/.265/.350, 14 HR, 41 R, 43 RBI, 6 SB in 337 AB
71. Michael A. Taylor – Royals
Projection: .239/.291/.405, 15 HR, 54 R, 51 RBI, 24 SB in 440 AB
2021 stats: .244/.297/.356, 16 HR, 55 R, 54 RBI, 14 SB in 483 AB
72. Hunter Renfroe – Red Sox
Projection: .236/.312/.493, 29 HR, 66 R, 73 RBI, 4 SB in 432 AB
2021 stats: .259/.315/.501, 31 HR, 89 R, 96 RBI, 1 SB in 521 AB
74. Myles Straw – Astros/Indians
Projection: .248/.329/.350, 6 HR, 67 R, 40 RBI, 26 SB in 443 AB
2021 stats: .271/.349/.348, 4 HR, 86 R, 48 RBI, 30 SB in 564 AB
83. Mark Canha – Athletics
Projection: .238/.357/.451, 26 HR, 94 R, 65 RBI, 5 SB in 512 AB
2021 stats: .231/.358/.387, 17 HR, 93 R, 61 RBI, 12 SB in 519 AB
Canha had a great first two months, but he hit just .208/.333/.319 in his final 83 games. That’s going to hurt him in free agency this winter.
85. Cedric Mullins – Orioles
Projection: .251/.311/.395, 12 HR, 61 R, 45 RBI, 19 SB in 443 AB
2021 stats: .291/.360/.518, 30 HR, 91 R, 59 RBI, 30 SB in 602 AB
88. Bryan Reynolds – Pirates
Projection: .255/.327/.428, 19 HR, 79 R, 68 RBI, 6 SB in 554 AB
2021 stats: .302/.390/.522, 24 HR, 93 R, 90 RBI, 5 SB in 559 AB
This was one case where completely throwing out 2020 would have been a good idea. Reynolds had a 22.2% strikeout rate during his impressive rookie season in 2019. It jumped to 27.4% while he hit just .189 in 55 games last year. This season, it was all of the way down to 18.4%.
91. Avisail Garcia – Brewers
Projection: .265/.320/.459, 18 HR, 51 R, 56 RBI, 5 SB in 381 AB
2021 stats: .262/.330/.490, 29 HR, 68 R, 86 RBI, 8 SB in 461 AB
Garcia was my No. 53 outfielder before the late Jackie Bradley Jr. signing caused me to scale his playing time projection back significantly. That didn’t work out for either me or the Brewers.
97. Robbie Grossman – Tigers
Projection: .251/.341/.413, 16 HR, 75 R, 58 RBI, 9 SB in 499 AB
2021 stats: .239/.357/.415, 23 HR, 88 R, 67 RBI, 20 SB in 557 AB
106. Adam Duvall – Marlins/Braves
Projection: .235/.301/.461, 21 HR, 49 R, 54 RBI, 1 SB in 358 AB
2021 stats: .228/.281/.491, 38 HR, 67 R, 113 RBI, 5 SB in 513 AB
133. Ben Gamel – Indians/Pirates
Projection: .257/.335/.392, 9 HR, 50 R, 38 RBI, 3 SB in 342 AB
2021 stats: .247/.347/.388, 8 HR, 43 R, 26 RBI, 3 SB in 340 AB
137. Lane Thomas – Cardinals/Nationals
Projection: .241/.320/.429, 9 HR, 33 R, 30 RBI, 5 SB in 224 AB
2021 stats: .235/.341/.412, 7 HR, 35 R, 28 RBI, 6 SB in 226 AB
147. Taylor Ward – Angels
Projection: .248/.329/.432, 9 HR, 33 R, 29 RBI, 4 SB in 222 AB
2021 stats: .250/.332/.438, 8 HR, 33 R, 33 RBI, 1 SB in 208 AB
I had to mix in a few good ones down here in order to counter all of the bad ones. It’s very unfortunate that Ward spent most of the second half hurt while the Angels had plenty of room for him in their lineup. Of the 15 Angels to get 150 plate appearances this year, Ward had the third highest OPS+ at 108.
174. Adolis Garcia – Rangers
Projection: .233/.273/.430, 8 HR, 21 R, 23 RBI, 3 SB in 172 AB
2021 stats: .243/.286/.454, 31 HR, 77 R, 90 RBI, 16 SB in 581 AB
NR. LaMonte Wade Jr. – Giants
Projection: .237/.346/.378, 4 HR, 22 R, 15 RBI, 2 SB in 135 AB
2021 stats: .253/.326/.482, 18 HR, 52 R, 56 RBI, 6 SB in 336 AB
