How Chris Paul impacts Phoenix Suns’ title shot
The Phoenix Suns’ NBA title odds understandably took a hit in sportsbooks with Wednesday’s news that point guard Chris Paul was in the NBA’s healthy and safety protocols.
But maybe not quite as big of a hit as you would have thought.
A lot is up in the air surrounding Paul’s status as we don’t know how many games Paul could potentially miss, or if he could potentially be back without missing any.
That didn’t stop some sportsbooks from speculating by changing their odds for Phoenix to win the 2021 NBA championship in the wake of the news.
BetOnline listed the Suns at 17/4 to win the title after the Paul news broke, third in the NBA behind the Brooklyn Nets (7/4) and Utah Jazz (5/2) (their odds came out before Utah lost to the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 5 of their playoff series to fall behind 3-2).
The Suns had been at 13/4 to win the title before that, behind the Nets (7/4) and Jazz (17/5).
It updated its odds Thursday to have the Nets at 3/2 for the title and the Suns at 9/4, with the Clippers and Jazz each at 7/1.
More:Phoenix Suns are now America’s team in 2021 NBA playoffs, according to Twitter map
More:How would Phoenix Suns look without Chris Paul to open Western Conference Finals?
SportsBetting,ag had the Suns go from +325 to win the title before the Paul news, to +425 after.
After Utah lost in Game 5, however, it put Phoenix back up at +225 to win the title, only behind the Nets at +145. It has both the Clippers and Jazz at +700.
OddsChecker lengthened the Suns’ chances from +430 to win the title to +500 after news of Paul’s status.
Kyle Newman wrote: , “Oddsmakers are being cautious with the Suns. They don’t really know how much Paul being placed in COVID protocol is going to affect the Suns. They don’t know how long he’ll be out, how it’ll affect him on the court, or anything in between. So, while the odds change is small now as more news comes out in the coming days it wouldn’t be a surprise to see their odds tank completely.”
More:NBA championship odds: Phoenix Suns favored in 2021 NBA title odds after sweep of Denver Nuggets
Phoenix Suns’ title projections actually have risen
Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Suns a 34% chance of winning the 2021 NBA title in its projections, the highest in the NBA.
The Nets are a 24% and the Clippers are at 18%, with the Jazz at 9% and the 76ers at 8%.
FiveThirtyEight also has something it calls “Elo forecast,” and the Suns’ chances for the title are even higher, according to that forecast, at 44%, with the Nets are at 18% and the Clippers at 16%.
The Suns were at 29% in FiveThirtyEight’s title projection earlier this week and 37% in the Elo forecast, so that site actually likes Phoenix’s chances more now for the title.
The Ringer had the Suns at 28% to win the title after the team swept the Denver Nuggets. That site now has Phoenix at 42% to win the championship.
Basketball Reference had Phoenix at 18.6% to win the title before the Paul news came out, but it now has the Suns at 24.5%.
The Suns have the best chance of all NBA teams to win the title according to both the Ringer and Basketball Reference.
They don’t have the best chance to do so according to ESPN, but they do have the second-best chance.
That site currently puts the Nets at 34.7% to win the title this season. It has Phoenix at 16.7%.
ESPN had the Suns at 15.4% to win the title earlier this week, which was fourth in the NBA.
More:How Phoenix Suns reached conference finals faster than anyone else after being down 2-1 to Los Angeles Lakers
When will Chris Paul return?
MyBookie released odds for when Paul could return to action and it favors him to play in Game 3, at +175.
It puts him at +200 for Game 1, +225 for Game 2, +250 for Game 4 and +275 for later in the series.
His odds for playing in Game 1 are +200 for Yes and -300 for No and he is -250 to play in the Western Conference Finals and +170 to not.
More:Phoenix Suns ticket prices, demand increasing for Utah Jazz or Los Angeles Clippers series
