Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press
Josh Allen OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards
If the Bills are going to match points with a healthy Mahomes and the Chiefs, they will likely need Allen to go to work on the ground. His dual-threat ability can help keep the Kansas City defense off balance and keep pressure off of Allen and the passing game.
Seeing as how the Chiefs rank 14th in passing defense and 21st in run defense, this could also be the best way to attack from the get-go. However, the Bills don’t exactly feature a dominant backfield. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined for just 1,168 rushing yards in the regular season. Allen was responsible for 421 rushing yards himself. He also rushed for 33 or more yards in three of his past five outings.
Expect designed runs to be a big part of Buffalo’s game plan and for Allen to pick up at least 34 yards on the ground.
Stefon Diggs OVER 7.5 Receptions
While Allen may spend a good chunk of the game scrambling for yards, he’s going to have to rely on his cannon of a throwing arm early and often. This should lead to plenty of opportunities for No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs.
The over/under of 7.5 receptions is a tricky one, as Diggs is likely to be shadowed by Kansas City cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and L’Jarius Sneed. However, while they may limit his after-the-catch production, it feels likely that Diggs will catch eight passes on the day.
Cleveland Browns wideout Jarvis Landry caught seven against the Chiefs in the divisional round despite finishing with just 20 yards.
Diggs led the NFL with 127 receptions in the regular season and reached eight catches nine times. He only had six receptions against the Chiefs in their Week 6 matchup. He should have a few more this time around.
The wideout is Buffalo’s biggest offensive weapon, and if Allen isn’t targeting him throughout the game, something is wrong.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 2.5 Touchdown Passes
This is another tricky one. Given the fact that Mahomes is expected to be at 100 percent, the over feels like a safe bet on the surface. However, it’s worth noting that he has thrown two or fewer touchdowns 10 times this season, including in the playoffs.
Another factor in play here is the makeup of Buffalo’s defense. The Bills rank ninth in passing touchdowns allowed and ninth in yards per pass attempt surrendered. However, they are 27th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 26th in yards per carry surrendered.
This suggests that Kansas City’s best chance of exploiting the Bills defense—especially in the red zone—will be on the ground. Even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire listed as questionable, Kansas City could utilize a run-heavy approach in this game.
In the first meeting between these teams this season, Kansas City rushed for 245 yards while Mahomes threw for 225 and two scores. This game could play out in similar fashion.